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Pound Sterling Rallies Near 1.2750 Amid US Dollar Weakness as BoE Outpaces Fed on Rate Cuts
Summary:
The British Pound surges to a two-week high as the US Dollar weakens on light trading. Investors bet on slower BoE easing amid persistent inflation pressures.
CLOSED
1.27001
ENTRY
1.30000
TGT
1.24900
SL
1.27046 +0.00330 +0.26%
434
Points
Profit
1.24900
SL
1.27435
CLOSING
1.27001
ENTRY
1.30000
TGT
The British Pound Sterling (GBP) climbed to a two-week high against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, nearing the 1.2750 mark as a softening Greenback and investor sentiment buoyed the currency. Trading volumes were subdued as U.S. markets remained closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, contributing to a thin liquidity environment that magnified the move.
The GBP/USD pair’s advance follows a week-long decline in the US Dollar, which is poised to end the week down by nearly 1.5%. The Dollar's weakness, reflected in the US Dollar Index (DXY) falling to a fresh two-week low of 105.60, comes as investors weigh the prospect of policy divergence between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE).
The US Dollar's decline began earlier in the week after President-elect Donald Trump’s nomination of hedge fund manager Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary. Bessent’s reputation as a pragmatic leader calmed markets, dampening the so-called “Trump trades” that had previously buoyed the Dollar. In a Financial Times interview, Bessent emphasized gradual tariff implementation and fiscal discipline, pledging to cap the budget deficit at 3% of GDP—a move seen as stabilizing rather than disruptive.
However, the broader market’s focus remains squarely on the Fed’s next moves. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December stands at 66%, with traders anticipating a total of 75 basis points of easing by the end of 2025. While a dovish Fed outlook weighs on the Dollar, the BoE's potential for more restrained easing is offering support to the Pound.
The Pound’s gains are rooted in expectations that the Bank of England will adopt a more measured approach to cutting rates, particularly given the UK's entrenched inflationary pressures. October's inflation report revealed that core CPI rose to 3.3%, while services inflation—closely monitored by the BoE—accelerated to 5%. These figures underscore persistent price pressures in the services sector, which could compel the BoE to maintain tighter monetary policy for longer.
In a speech earlier this week, BoE Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli cautioned that inflation may persist above target, with wage growth stabilizing at 3.5%-4% and headline CPI potentially anchoring around 3%, rather than the desired 2%. This reinforces the view that the BoE’s rate cuts will be more gradual compared to the Fed, supporting the Pound’s strength.
Technical Analysis 
Technically, the GBP/USD pair exhibits a bullish bias, with immediate resistance seen at 1.2730. A decisive break above this level could open the door to further gains, targeting 1.2800 and eventually 1.3000. However, failure to sustain momentum at these levels may trigger a downward correction, potentially resuming the broader bearish trend within the existing channel.
The expected trading range for the day is between the 1.2650 support and 1.2795 resistance. For now, the trend forecast remains bullish, with risks tilted towards continued gains if macroeconomic conditions align.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
BUY GBPUSD
ENTRY PRICE: 1.2700
STOP LOSS: 1.2490
TAKE PROFIT: 1.3000
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Warren Takunda, a seasoned finance leader specializing in the Middle East, is a trusted senior analyst with a proven track record. As head of the finance team, he excels in financial planning, analysis, and reporting. Warren's expertise in financial modeling and investment analysis delivers valuable insights to clients.
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